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Trump & Tariffs
4/8/2025
© John Erickson
The shitstorm du jour is the result of two parties subscribing to an either-or view of how the world works.
Trump appears to lack the three-dimensional thinking necessary to factor-in unforseen consequences. In his view it's all very simple: the world must sell to the U.S. so, therefore, the world will do what the U.S. wants in order to continue doing business.
But the world is a different place from the one he imagines in his daydreams. China, essentially, makes everything. And their government is striving to create a self-sustaining market in which Chinese goods purchased by China's citizens will adequately keep them afloat apart from international trade, much like the U.S. in the early-to-mid 20th century. Japan, Taiwan. Korea, the EU and others can satisfy the technology demands of the world market.
Plus he's pissed everyone off. He's, very unnecessarily, insulted allies in the process. What incentive would a foreign power have to bend their economic policy in order to gratify an egotistical hustler?
Granted, they may need to placate him in the short run, but human nature dictates that these nations will exhaust every avenue by which to survive without American trade in the long term.
It's a miracle when an economy functions well even in the best of times, considering the myriad influences at play. But sudden changes spark sudden panic. By comparison, changes which evolve "organically" (from supply interruptions, natural disaster or war) have their own unseen timetable; at least it gives us a visible cause by which to guide us to possible solutions.
But when the changes are deliberate, the solution is as unpredictable as the dopamine levels of the person triggering them. We know this is someone we can't do business with. The world is now coming to that conclusion.
We're witnessing a bizarre form of mental illness in our political hero. To his credit, he has pinpointed obvious problems in immigration and trade. When the Left vehemently denied these problems during the presidential campaign, it only showcased their insanity, making Trump appear more plausible by default. And now, to his discredit, he's pursuing these issues with the passion and skill of a drunken eight-year-old.
I really hope this all works out. But inflammatory rhetoric can make the best of policies indigestible by the other side. Our lack of manufacturing infrastructure adds to our vulnerability when staring-down the world. And what would entice a foreign business to invest in building manufacturing plants here when U.S. policy can change on a dime with each new administration?
But, other than that, I'm sure he knows what he's doing.
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